There’s a big event tonight! The US November ADP private sector employment data will be released.

Why is it especially important this time? Two reasons have made this report the center of attention. The official nonfarm payrolls report has been delayed due to the government shutdown, so this is the only employment data the market can look at right now—it’s basically a “stand-in firefighter.” Even more crucially, the Fed is holding its FOMC meeting next Tuesday, and this data could very well influence their stance on rate cuts.

How will the market react? I see three possible scenarios:

If the data blows past expectations, it means the job market is hot, the dollar will likely strengthen, and BTC might take a hit. If the numbers are just average and in line with expectations, we’ll probably see continued choppiness as everyone waits for the next signal. If the data is disappointing and shows a weak job market, the dollar could drop fast and BTC might see a sharp rally.

Besides the headline number, don’t forget to watch the details—employment distribution by industry and wage growth among job-switchers both reveal clues about inflation pressure and the likelihood of rate cuts.

For short-term traders: expect big volatility tonight, keep your position sizes in check, and make sure you set stop-losses so sudden moves don’t wipe you out. This report isn’t just a number—it’s a key window into what the Fed might do next.