#美联储降息预期与政策变化 It seems that major institutions have new developments regarding their expectations for Federal Reserve policies. JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley have both adjusted their forecasts and are no longer optimistic about a rate cut in December. The market reaction has also been quite rational—interest rate swaps show that traders are similarly not very optimistic about a rate cut by the end of the year.

These shifts in expectations pose a significant challenge for our copy trading strategies. For those who previously followed traders betting on a December rate cut, it may be time to reassess your positions. Personally, I tend to diversify my copy trades, choosing traders who are more conservative in their outlook and more flexible in their position management. After all, Fed policy remains highly uncertain, and being too aggressive could lead to significant losses.

But don’t be too pessimistic—Morgan Stanley expects three rate cuts in January, April, and June next year. In the long run, the rate-cutting cycle is still expected. I recommend keeping a close eye on employment and inflation data, as these are likely to be key factors influencing the Fed’s decisions. Adjust your copy trading strategies appropriately, balance risk and reward, and you’ll be better positioned to hold your ground in such a volatile market.