2025-12-03 06:20:34

The biggest move of the year has already been revealed.

Last night, two events directly ignited the market’s nerves—Trump fired shots again, this time directly quoting JPMorgan Chase’s CEO to take aim at Powell: “Everyone’s saying it’s time to cut rates, what are you waiting for?” When the president himself is pushing for debt, that kind of pressure is no joke.

Even more striking is the data: CME’s rate cut probability skyrocketed to 89.2%, making a December rate cut almost a certainty. Even more exciting, the probability of another 50 basis point cut in January has surged to 25.7%.

The current situation is quite subtle—everyone knows the rate cut is coming, but no one dares to guarantee which sector the money will flow into. Mainstream coins like BTC, ETH, and SOL have already started taking sides in advance. The market is playing a “buy the rumor, sell the news” psychological game.

Here’s the question: When the policy finally lands, who will be the biggest winner? Traditional safe-haven assets or the highly volatile crypto market? This rate-cutting cycle might be even more complicated than anyone imagines.

BTC-3.34%

ETH-4%

SOL-6.85%

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PermabullPete

· 12-03 17:59

The expectation of rate cuts is so strong, but when it actually happens, could the crypto market end up dumping instead? I bet Trump will change his tune again. BTC is almost at 60k already. Is there still any downside left in this round, bro? Powell got called out by the President himself. Imagine how much pressure this guy is under. An 89% probability is basically just political theater. In the end, the money still flows to traditional assets, right? Rate cuts = more liquidity, but more liquidity doesn’t necessarily flow into crypto. I’m a bit skeptical of this logic.

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DeFiDoctor

· 12-03 06:50

An 89.2% probability looks good, but this is just the market betting on policy—a clinical manifestation. The real risk lies in which sector liquidity will flow out to. Buy on rate cut expectations, sell on policy realization; in this round of psychological games, it’s always the late-to-react retail investors who get hurt. BTC and ETH have already taken positions in advance, but I’m more concerned about when the complications from high-risk DeFi protocol strategies will start to show. A downward interest rate cycle often masks underlying risks. I recommend regularly reviewing your position risk warning indicators—don’t wait until the shoe drops to realize there are liquidity vulnerabilities in your holdings.

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MEVHunterBearish

· 12-03 06:50

89.2% probability? This is the market betting on policy, not fundamentals. Where the money flows after the rate cut is the real question, don’t get lulled by expectations. Trump’s move is ruthless, and Powell is under tremendous pressure. Is this BTC rally real money standing firm, or just a game of musical chairs? Hard to say. Buy the rumor, sell the news—someone’s bound to get burned by this old trick. By the end of the year, when the policy finally lands, I bet there will be a major reshuffle.

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WhaleWatcher

· 12-03 06:49

This whole rate cut thing is really just a setup | Trump is pushing way too hard, Powell will be lucky to hold out until December Where is the money actually flowing? That’s the real core of the game | BTC started moving early this round, and those in the know have already noticed What does 89.2% probability really mean? Instead of guessing the winner, it’s better to follow the rhythm | Buy the rumor, sell the news—players are showing extreme differences in quality this round Don’t get played—rate cuts ≠ all coins go up | History always repeats itself, but never in exactly the same way Honestly, anyone going all in this round has a gambler’s mentality | The prudent ones are watching and will only move once the dust truly settles With Trump talking so aggressively, the market should actually be cautious | The more something is rushed, the more likely it is to reverse Institutions are quietly positioning, retail is guessing, and in the end? Institutions are always the ones who have the last laugh

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OnchainGossiper

· 12-03 06:43

All in with an 88.9% probability? I don’t have the guts for that. The moment the rate cut finally happens is actually the most dangerous—that’s what history teaches us. This round from Trump is basically an explicit push for rate cuts, but can the crypto world really benefit from it? Feels like it’s more about hype and speculation. That’s why people say the end of the year is when it’s easiest to get rekt. Whoever catches this train is doomed. I’ll just wait and see for now. I’ll make a move when the shoe actually drops. Getting in now is just handing money to the whales.

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