Today, there was a major move with ETH—a suspected Bitmine-related address withdrew over 30,000 ETH (specifically 30,278) from an exchange in one go. In the crypto community, a withdrawal of this scale is basically a signal that a whale is cashing out at a high.

Currently, ETH is stuck around $3,033, which is already a yearly high. Looking at historical data, every time there’s a withdrawal of this magnitude, the probability of a short-term drop afterward is over 60%. What’s more concerning is that this withdrawal accounts for 1.2% of ETH’s daily trading volume, which could tighten market liquidity. Retail investors should be cautious now to avoid getting caught in a "long squeeze" stampede.

From a technical perspective, ETH’s chart has already formed a classic "triple top"—the $3,100 level has been tested several times without breaking through. The MACD shows a bearish crossover, the RSI at 68.07 is already in the overbought zone, and the MFI has soared to 88.03, indicating a clear risk of over-concentration of funds.

For support levels, the first line of defense is at $2,905. If that doesn’t hold, the next key support is at $2,820. The trading volume doesn’t look good either—yesterday saw a sudden spike in red bars, clearly showing profit-taking by bulls at the top. This kind of "high-volume but stagnant price" situation usually signals a trend reversal.

Personal opinion: Right now, both news and technicals are resonating in a bearish direction. The whale withdrawal has weakened bullish confidence, and technical indicators are collectively warning of a pullback. In the short term, consider shorting on rallies, but be mindful of your entry points—for example, try a small position around $3,100, add more if it breaks below $2,905, and target the $2,820 area first.