Is gold really about to take off this time?

I glanced at the market this morning, and spot gold is hovering around $4,208, with the $4,200 level proving to be a tough barrier. Yesterday’s move was pretty interesting—it first dropped to $4,164 to shake out retail traders, then rallied straight back to close at $4,205. That resilience, combined with several major bullish factors recently, makes $5,000 sound like more than just talk.

Here are a few key points to watch:

Over at the Fed, a 25-basis-point rate cut in December is almost a sure thing, with the market pricing in an 89% probability. Rumors are swirling about a dovish new Fed chair, and expectations for looser policy are growing stronger. With this week’s ADP jobs report and PCE inflation data coming out, we’ll basically see the direction.

Global central banks are still aggressively stocking up on gold. In October alone, net purchases reached 53 tons—the highest monthly total this year! Countries are optimizing their foreign reserves, and this kind of long-term support shouldn’t be underestimated.

Looking at US bonds and the dollar: the 10-year Treasury yield has slipped to 4.085%, and the dollar index has fallen for six straight days to 99.32. The cost of holding gold is dropping, so naturally, money is flowing into gold.

Geopolitical tensions haven’t eased either. US-Russia talks are still dragging on, and now there are reports of US military buildup in the Caribbean, so safe-haven demand could be triggered at any time.

Honestly, the $4,200 level is the lifeline for bulls. Even if there’s a short-term pullback, it’s a buying opportunity. The Fed meeting and economic data this week are key. Of course, we have to watch out for profit-taking, but from a bull market logic, $5,000 isn’t just empty talk.