ETH Before the 3170 Threshold: Divergence Signals Have Appeared, Adjustment Risks Are Increasing Sharply

The market is focusing all its attention on the price zone 3170 of ETH – an area considered the “death line” for the short term trend. In the context of price behavior continuously swinging strongly within the range of 3050–3120, many traders are concerned whether ETH can break out or will suffer a deep fall to 3050, even 2900. Below is a comprehensive analysis based on both news and technical factors.

1. News factor: Market sentiment is more sensitive than real data. A rumor about “a major country tightening tax controls on digital assets” is spreading rapidly in the community, although there is no official documentation yet. While this information has not been verified, the cryptocurrency market always reacts strongly to risk expectations. A more notable point lies in the zone 3170 – where a large number of investors were previously “stuck” during the fall from last October. As the price approaches this zone, the selling pressure from those waiting to exit and take short term profits significantly increases. This is why the selling pressure at 3170 could explode at any moment.
2. Technical factors: A golden signal appears – but the trap is right ahead. ETH is fluctuating around the zone of 3107, with the MACD creating a golden cross and lying above the 0 line, signaling that the upward momentum is still present. However, this positive signal comes with a significant risk: ⚠️ A price-volume divergence has appeared on the 15-minute frame at 3120 Price increases, but volume falls. This has previously been a signal leading to a 10–15% drop in previous instances. To break 3170, two mandatory conditions must be met: The volume must increase significantly beyond 3120. The 15-minute candle must close above 3140 steadily. Missing one of the two, the breakout is just a “fake breakout”. On the contrary, 3080 is the key threshold. If it breaks 3080 → the price is likely to test 3050. This is not just ordinary support but a buying zone for whales in October, with more than 1.6 million ETH accumulated in the 3050–3100 range. → This group has a strong motive to protect their costs. What is the probability of falling straight to 2900? Only about 20% Reason: large institutions entered this year with an average price above 2900, they do not want the market to break through their own cost zone.
3. What is the organization doing? Their profit is the market's risk. On-chain data shows that large funds have aggressively accumulated ETH in November, most of which were purchased at a cost basis around 3050–3100. As the price approaches 3170, profit-taking from this group is entirely reasonable. Common situation: Push the price up near strong resistance → creating FOMO signals. Retail investors rush in. Institutions lightly sell off → the price is pulled back to 3050. Institutions accumulate again at a lower zone. → They are “eating from both ends”, the retail market is at risk. The probability of holding above 3170 is currently estimated at only about 30%.
4. Practical trading strategy: Reduce risk – maintain liquidity – do not chase emotions (1) Zone to place an order Only disburse a small 5–10% of capital in the zone 3050–3100. Do not chase purchases when the price has risen to 3150–3170. (2) Risk Management If it breaks 3050, exit the position immediately; do not expect a “bounce back”. Keep at least 1/3 of the capital for news volatility. (3) Action threshold Break 3170 with large volume → Can increase positionBreak 3170 but with low volume → Gradually take profit, avoid risk of reversalIf the price touches 2900, only catch the bottom with a small position and must have a clear stop-loss.
5. Conclusion In the context of decreasing volume and divergence having appeared, ETH is likely to face a short term correction before forming a new trend. External rumors only play a psychological role, but it is the zones 3170 and 3080 that are the decisive points tonight. When the market becomes chaotic, the most essential thing is not prediction but trading discipline: No FOMO No all-in No stop-loss Opportunities always exist, but capital is limited.