Recently, I noticed an interesting phenomenon while monitoring the market – on a certain compliance platform, those large orders ranging from tens of thousands to millions of dollars have quietly shifted from net selling to net buying. These whales have started to leisurely pick up goods, but don’t get too excited; the price still needs to grind.

I looked at the monthly RSI, and it has dropped from the previous overbought state to around 60%. Looking through historical data, you'll find that each time this kind of adjustment takes at least 200 days, with longer ones stretching to 300 days. At this rate, the true bottom may have to wait until the middle of next year or even into autumn, which would be between June and October 2026.

The market is actually quite fragmented right now. On one hand, institutional buying continues to exceed miner output, clearly indicating a demand advantage; on the other hand, prices are fluctuating sideways, with momentum clearly lagging behind. The core contradiction, to put it simply, is that some people are hoarding, but the overall market sentiment hasn’t picked up yet.

The operation of "gentle accumulation" by the Whale in the bottom area is indeed a layout from a long-term perspective. However, it is important to note that large purchases by institutions do not equate to price surges; the panic sentiment among retail investors will still suppress the market in the short term. The technical signals are quite clear — a monthly RSI decline means we are in the mid-stage of a cyclical consolidation, so don't expect a sudden surge. In such times, patience is much more important than frequent trading.

On a macro level, caution is also needed. Even if the Federal Reserve really lowers interest rates, once the risk of economic recession materializes, a liquidity crisis will still impact the crypto market. The premium indicator of a certain platform has started to fluctuate again recently, indicating that retail investor confidence remains very fragile.

What to do at this stage? Here are a few practical ideas:

Do not go all-in on positions; keep at least half in cash and enter in batches at key support levels, such as 60K or 55K. Adjust your mindset, reject FOMO emotions, and rely on endurance rather than speculation in the mid-cycle. Focus on the fundamentals; the continuous inflow of institutional funds is the foundation for long-term strength, while short-term price fluctuations are just noise.

Lastly, it is worth mentioning that when Bitcoin falls into a tug-of-war, smart money often begins to shift towards protocols with real cash flow and staking yields. The market is full of undercurrents, which is worth paying attention to.