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Don't remind me again today

CryptoComedian

2025-12-02 19:21:43

Bitcoin market data observation: A rebound does not equal a reversal, it is still too early to talk about a bull run.

Today we only talk about BTC, other coins are not mentioned for now. The reason is simple - if Bitcoin is unstable, no matter how lively the altcoins are, they are just running alongside. Before Bitcoin shows a clear stabilization signal, the market for all altcoins is a castle in the air.

From $126,000 down to $84,000, this wave of correction lasted for more than a month and indeed wore out the patience of many people. Although the K-line has shown red for the past two days, if you switch to the 4-hour cycle and observe closely, you will find that this looks more like a technical repair after an oversell, rather than a true trend reversal.

Technical situation:
The current trend characteristics are very clear, a standard descending channel pattern. Each high is lower than the last, and the lows are continuously refreshing—this is a textbook bearish pattern.

From 84,000 rebounding to the current 91,000, the trading volume has not significantly increased. What does this indicate? The buying power is insufficient, and it is more of a passive replenishment after short sellers take profits. A true reversal requires a breakout with increased volume, not this slow-paced climb.

Although the MACD indicator has a golden cross below the zero line, there is still some distance to a real strength reversal. To put it another way, the car has indeed reignited, but it is still in first gear going uphill, and the power is clearly insufficient.

Macroeconomic game:
The hawkish statement from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda ( on interest rate expectations ) hangs over risk assets like the Sword of Damocles, suppressing their upward potential.

Over there at the Federal Reserve, although the market is betting on interest rate cuts...( not finished )

BTC0.53%

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GasFeeCryBaby

· 6h ago

Rebound, rebound, it's always a rebound. Can we just get a reversal already, guys? --- The fact that the trading volume isn’t increasing is just insane—it’s just the bears having fun on their own. --- I just want to know when we’ll actually break out. Everyone holding right now is just gambling. --- MACD bullish crossover my ass, we still need to wait. Don’t get fooled. --- If BTC isn’t stable, altcoins are just free money for others—can’t argue with that. --- A slow, lukewarm climb, haha. That describes it perfectly—just so exhausting. --- Ueda’s move is really disgusting, totally crushed the expectation for a rebound. --- From 12.6 to 8.4, then tangled around 9.1 again. Really tiring. --- Still the same thing: If you don’t see increased volume, don’t rush to catch the falling knife. --- Before the bottom is confirmed, it’s all a scam market. No harm in being cautious.

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MerkleMaid

· 12-02 19:49

Rebound just wants to say reversal? Wake up, there's no volume at all. This wave is just a passive replenishment, there's no real firepower. Oh, the MACD has a golden cross pattern... but I think we still need to wait and see. The analogy of climbing a slope is absolutely perfect haha. BTC is stagnant, those shouting bull are just deceiving themselves. I'm too familiar with this kind of slow rise... Cut Loss comes this way. The descending channel is so obvious, those who dare to catch a falling knife now are real warriors. That Ueda guy really knows how to stir the pot, risky assets are always uncomfortable. Volume is the king, and breaking position counts. Hold on, don't rush, reversals like this won't be so cheap.

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AllTalkLongTrader

· 12-02 19:48

Are you doing this again? You want to sing a reversal just because of a rebound, ugh. --- If the Trading Volume doesn't expand, don't brag; this is no different from market maker support. --- Stop, stop, starting to tell stories from 8.4 to 9.1? Let's talk after breaking 120,000. --- It's really just lukewarm water, it's annoying to watch. --- MACD golden cross pattern is useless, A-shares also have golden crosses every day... --- What you're saying is correct, but why are you still here? Aren't you supposed to wait for signals? --- The Central Bank's move was indeed disgusting, and funding still has to watch the Fed's face. --- With such an obvious downtrend channel, you're still stubbornly holding on? Isn't it better to enter a position after breaking the resistance level with higher trade volumes? --- I admire this kind of calm analysis, it's much more reliable than those who talk about bull runs every day. --- Touching altcoins before there's a stabilization signal is just looking for death; I've learned my lesson. --- You think an oversold rebound can fool me? Last time you said that, and it continued to fall.

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MetaverseLandlord

· 12-02 19:47

Rebound ≠ reversal, this statement is not wrong. Without the support of trading volume, the rebound is just a joke. --- After more than a month of patience, we are met with this lukewarm market, it's hard to hold on. --- The car is still in first gear, lacking power, just keep waiting. --- BTC is unstable, talking about a bull run is still too early. --- Passive replenishment after taking profit and leaving, is this all for this rebound? --- A golden cross pattern below the zero axis is still called a golden cross pattern, I find that questionable. --- High points keep going lower, and low points are also plummeting, this is a standard short positions trick. --- If the trading volume doesn't expand, it's all illusory. A real reversal needs volume support, and we're still far from that. --- Think about that month of pullback, what does this little rebound count for, we still need to see if it can break through later. --- The hawkish stance of the Bank of Japan is pressing down, while the Fed is betting on interest rate cuts, risk assets are caught in between, it's uncomfortable. --- Don't be quick to say bull run, a rebound is just a repair, the downtrend channel hasn't been broken yet.

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ImpermanentTherapist

· 12-02 19:41

Uh, the Trading Volume is so small... It feels like the short positions are just being lazy.

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RektHunter

· 12-02 19:26

Hi, I feel like this rebound is just a short positions smoke screen. Can such a poor trading volume turn things around?

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ContractTester

· 12-02 19:23

Rebound? Ha, it's climbing like lukewarm water, I can't see where it's reversing. It really needs higher trade volumes to count, to be honest, the current Trading Volume is a bit awkward.

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