If you have Bitcoin or US stocks in hand, I suggest you don't blink this week.

CME's latest data shows that the market expects an 88% probability of a rate cut next week—sounds like a done deal. But ironically, this time the Federal Reserve has to make decisions amidst a fog of uncertainty.

Why? The government has shut down. This means they won't see the employment data for October and November during their meetings, and they'll have to wait until December 16th to receive the report. In other words, the Federal Reserve will have to make decisions in a data blind spot.

On one side, there is overwhelming market confidence, while on the other, the decision-makers are completely in the dark. This sense of dislocation is the most critical issue.