Today, I will sort out several dynamics worth following.
Let's talk about the prediction market. Opinion just secured a new round of financing, with the specific amount in the tens of millions of dollars range. I checked the data from Defillama, and this project has earned about 880,000 dollars in the last 7 days, totaling 2.14 million dollars for the month. Additionally, The Block's statistics from November are quite interesting: Kalshi captured 60.8% of the market share, Polymarket accounted for 39%, and other players combined make up less than 1%. Now Kalshi has started collaborating with Solana, and this combination is indeed quite powerful.
About the new issuance. There is an Aztec tonight, with a floor price of 0.027, which translates to an FDV of about 280 million USD. However, this thing cannot be moved immediately after the issuance—it has to wait until after February 11 next year, provided that the governance vote passes; if it doesn't pass, it will be automatically unlocked on November 13. The conditions are too harsh, so I won't touch it.
As for the project that Jupiter is launching tomorrow, there is still no conclusion. The specific valuation has not been released yet, but I plan to test the waters if it's not too outrageous. Interestingly, the lady who was questioned today about fraudulent donations specifically tweeted about this project, making it hard to discern the truth. However, the project itself should be profitable — in November, Jupiter ranked first with a trading volume of 48 billion USD among DEX aggregators, and most of its trades are routed through HumidiFi's dark pool. Even if the transaction fees are low, given this scale, profitability is certain. So if the valuation is reasonable, it is still worth participating.
There is a new message on the regulatory front. The SEC chairman said that the innovation exemptions for crypto companies will take effect in January next year, and they will also change the rules to help them go public. Does this mean they can issue both tokens and stocks? That's interesting.
Finally, Grayscale predicts that Bitcoin will reach a new high in 2026, directly refuting the four-year cycle theory.
That's it, just these. I hope everyone can seize the opportunity.
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AirdropAutomaton
· 10h ago
Kalshi+Solana is really impressive, but the battle for the king of prediction markets is just getting started.
Aztec’s lock-up period is ridiculous, I’m giving up as well.
Jupiter launching tomorrow? If the valuation isn’t nonsense, I might participate.
This move by the SEC is something else, issuing both tokens and stocks... Regulation is really making concessions.
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RegenRestorer
· 12-02 15:51
The lock-up period for Aztec is really outrageous; it's a bit harsh that I can't move it until February.
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WalletDetective
· 12-02 15:50
It sounds like the Kalshi x Solana operation is serious, but the financing scale of Opinion seems a bit inflated compared to its monthly revenue.
If Jupiter's valuation doesn't exceed 5 billion tomorrow, I'll enter a position; a DEX with a trading volume of 48 billion is indeed worth this money, right?
I also pass on Aztec's lock-in period; who dares to bet on governance voting passing if it can only move in February?
The SEC's operation feels like a dream, issuing both coins and stocks? What about Compliance?
Grayscale's bearish view on the four-year cycle is a bit absurd; if the big pump is in 2026, don't we have to wait another two years?
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MeaninglessApe
· 12-02 15:44
The combination of Kalshi + Solana is really amazing, the prediction market is finally getting some action. However, the unlocking conditions for Aztec are indeed disappointing, so I will pass. Jupiter's launch tomorrow feels worth following, but I'm afraid the valuation will come up with some ridiculous numbers again.
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LiquiditySurfer
· 12-02 15:41
Kalshi's combination with Sol does have something going on, the prediction market sector is about to rise.
I'm also watching Jupiter's IPO, just waiting to see if the valuation gets too outrageous.
Forget about Aztec being locked for so long, the liquidity is too poor to matter.
The SEC's recent moves are quite interesting, issuing coins and stocks... TradFi is going to be stirred up quite a bit.
Grayscale denying the four-year cycle? Then I need to recalculate my surfing points.
View OriginalReply0
PrivacyMaximalist
· 12-02 15:36
The unlock condition for Aztec is really ridiculous, I'll just wait and see.
Today, I will sort out several dynamics worth following.
Let's talk about the prediction market. Opinion just secured a new round of financing, with the specific amount in the tens of millions of dollars range. I checked the data from Defillama, and this project has earned about 880,000 dollars in the last 7 days, totaling 2.14 million dollars for the month. Additionally, The Block's statistics from November are quite interesting: Kalshi captured 60.8% of the market share, Polymarket accounted for 39%, and other players combined make up less than 1%. Now Kalshi has started collaborating with Solana, and this combination is indeed quite powerful.
About the new issuance. There is an Aztec tonight, with a floor price of 0.027, which translates to an FDV of about 280 million USD. However, this thing cannot be moved immediately after the issuance—it has to wait until after February 11 next year, provided that the governance vote passes; if it doesn't pass, it will be automatically unlocked on November 13. The conditions are too harsh, so I won't touch it.
As for the project that Jupiter is launching tomorrow, there is still no conclusion. The specific valuation has not been released yet, but I plan to test the waters if it's not too outrageous. Interestingly, the lady who was questioned today about fraudulent donations specifically tweeted about this project, making it hard to discern the truth. However, the project itself should be profitable — in November, Jupiter ranked first with a trading volume of 48 billion USD among DEX aggregators, and most of its trades are routed through HumidiFi's dark pool. Even if the transaction fees are low, given this scale, profitability is certain. So if the valuation is reasonable, it is still worth participating.
There is a new message on the regulatory front. The SEC chairman said that the innovation exemptions for crypto companies will take effect in January next year, and they will also change the rules to help them go public. Does this mean they can issue both tokens and stocks? That's interesting.
Finally, Grayscale predicts that Bitcoin will reach a new high in 2026, directly refuting the four-year cycle theory.
That's it, just these. I hope everyone can seize the opportunity.