The interest rate hike in Japan is still continuing to brew.

Polymarket shows that the probability of a 25 basis point interest rate hike in December has soared to 81%. Even more exaggerated is that Japan's two-year government bond yield has directly broken through the 1% barrier, which hasn't happened since the 2008 financial crisis. The five-year government bond yield has also reached a 17-year high. Meanwhile, the yen has appreciated by 1% against the dollar.

Several pieces of data together make market expectations exceptionally clear – Japan's ultra-loose monetary policy, which has been maintained for decades, may really be coming to an end.

Once this shift is solidified, the impact on global liquidity and risk assets will not be small. After all, the Bank of Japan has long played the role of "global money printer," and now it suddenly needs to hit the brakes; the chain reaction in the funding environment is worth monitoring.