In this cycle, BTC's performance in the range of $82,000 to $98,000 is crucial - you could say that its future direction depends on it.

To be honest, we might just be one bad trading week away from the target range of 69k-72k.

Reviewing the recent trend: After BTC dropped from above $98,000, the decline has been quite sharp, hitting around $82,000 as expected. A death cross has also appeared on the daily chart, further intensifying the downward pressure.

Although there was a small rebound last week, the strength was clearly insufficient, and it has started to slide down again. More critically, the weekly closing price has also fallen below the moving average band - this indicates that the rebound momentum is quite weak.

The current situation is: we are observing whether a key support can hold or if it will continue to test lower levels.

From a daily perspective, during the holiday period, trading volume was low, and after filling the gap above, the price turned down again. The signal of a death cross has made market sentiment more cautious.

The core logic is as follows: if we cannot regain the lost resistance level, the probability of continuing to test new lows is very high.

Conversely, if the price can regain that position, there may be a chance for a rebound. However, if it cannot, the downward trend may continue. (If the weekly closing can return to within or above the moving average, it will be a simple confirmation signal of a trend reversal.)

So, where should we focus now?

If BTC falls below $82,000, the next major support area will be between $69,000 and $72,000. That is likely to be the next line of defense.

Conversely, if it miraculously manages to stand back above $98,000 by the end of the week, the bearish logic will gradually collapse, and it may even rebound to $110,000 or higher.

Overall, as long as the weekly close remains below 98000, caution should be maintained. Once it falls below 82000, one must be mentally prepared for a drop towards around 69000.