#ETH走势分析 Tonight might be another sleepless night. $BTC

December 3rd is a bit special - three U.S. economic data points will be released in a cluster tonight until dawn. The ADP employment report, import prices, and crude oil inventories may sound far from the crypto space? In fact, each number can make the market twitch.

Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $86,000, with a daily volatility exceeding 5%. Even more alarming, $1.2 billion has been withdrawn from the ETF in a single day, indicating that institutions are clearly avoiding something. The open interest in the futures market has already surpassed $12 billion, and leverage is higher than it was three months ago—at this time, any data explosion can be quite serious. $ETH

Specifically:

The ADP employment data at 9:15 PM, ( last time was 42,000, and the expectation is 5,000, ) is the most critical. If it exceeds expectations? The Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts, and prices will likely test below 80,000; if the data disappoints, expectations for rate cuts will rise, but the problem is that leverage is currently too aggressive, and a rebound might directly trigger a series of liquidations.

The import price index at 9:30, with a previous value of 0.30% and an expected value of 0.10%, is more subtle (. If it rises, inflation anxiety will suppress the market, but some funds may enter the market with the concept of "hedging against inflation"; if it falls, the pressure for interest rate hikes will ease, but the narrative for Bitcoin's value preservation will lose some of its persuasiveness.

The crude oil inventory data at 5:30 a.m. the next day seems to be the most distant, but it actually affects mining costs and market sentiment. A surge in inventory → oil prices drop → miner costs decrease; a sharp decline in inventory → oil prices rise → selling pressure may increase. It can also indirectly transmit to risk asset sentiment through economic expectations.

In the current market, the weight of macro factors clearly overshadows the crypto narrative itself. In a high-leverage environment, don’t fixate on a particular data point to bet on direction—wait for the volatility to settle down first. After all, the account is still there, and opportunities are always present. $DOGS