Based on the current 4-hour Candlestick and market environment on December 2, 2025, Ethereum is expected to continue its short-term downtrend, but there are opportunities for local Rebound. Long-term trends need to consider macroeconomic and technical support. The specific analysis is as follows:

1. Technical aspect: In a steep downward channel, short-term bearish.

From my 4-hour chart, I can see:

• Trend Structure: ETH is currently in a "downward channel" (the white diagonal line in the picture), exhibiting a bearish pattern of "lower highs and lower lows," and has broken below the key support of $2800 (current price 2798.45).

• Key price level:

◦ Support level: 2660-2700 USD (red dashed line in the chart + previous low 2620.60), if it falls below this, it may drop to 2500 USD;

◦ Resistance level: 2900-3050 USD (channel upper bound + white dashed line in the figure), it is easy to encounter resistance and fall during the rebound.

• Indicator Signal: The 4-hour MACD is below the zero axis, the RSI is close to being oversold but has not fully bottomed out, and the short-term rebound momentum is weak.

2. Market Environment: Dual Suppression of Macro + Sentiment

• Macroeconomic bearishness: Expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December are cooling, the Bank of Japan may raise interest rates, and global liquidity is tightening, with cryptocurrencies as high-risk assets being the first to bear the brunt;

• Market sentiment: Since December, ETH has fallen by over 25% in a single month, with over $500 million liquidated in 24 hours. Leveraged funds are fleeing madly, and the cycle of "fall - liquidation - sell-off" is still ongoing;

• Capital: ETH spot/ETF funds net outflow, exchange reserves increased, selling pressure has not eased.

3. The probability of the next trend

• Short term (1-3 days): It is highly likely to fluctuate within the range of 2700-2900 USD. If the rebound is weak, it will continue to test the support at 2660 USD;

• Medium term (within 1 week): If the support at $2660 is lost, it may test the $2500-$2300 range; if it can hold above $2700, there may be a weak rebound to $2900, but it will be difficult to break $3000.

• Long-term (within 12 months): Need to observe the Federal Reserve's policy + the effectiveness of the Fusaka upgrade on December 3. If the upgrade has a positive effect, it may rebound after consolidating around the $2500 level.
[My thoughts, Zhao, for reference only, profits and losses are at your own risk.]
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