Faucet, do we really need to reopen it?

The Federal Reserve just dropped a deep-water bomb——quantitative tightening (QT) has officially come to an end. This "draining" game, which started in June 2022, has finally pressed the pause button after siphoning off $1.5 trillion.

In plain terms: The central bank is no longer crazily selling bonds and shrinking its balance sheet, so the money in the market will not keep decreasing.

Why is this matter worth paying attention to? Because it is not the end, but another beginning. QT has stopped, and the next step is often QE( quantitative easing)—the prelude to the restart of the printing press. The balance sheet is no longer contracting, the faucet of liquidity is loosening, and the game of money finding its way is about to begin.

**A few key numbers to look at:**

• Balance sheet reduction: Over $1.5 trillion evaporated in two and a half years.
• Market expectations: The probability of a rate cut in December remains at 98%, and the rate cut space in 2025 exceeds 150 basis points.
• Historical trend: Six months after the last QT ended, the US stock market averaged an 18% increase; and Bitcoin? The last round of easing directly surged by 1200%.

The SOFR rate and overnight reverse repos have also begun to show turning point signals. The pressure in the bond market is instantly released, and the reserves of the banking system will slowly recover. For cryptocurrencies, which are extremely sensitive to liquidity, this represents a change of benchmark level.

**But don't rush to go all in.**

It's common to see a counterattack after good news is fully released. For a genuine trending market, we need to wait for clear signals of interest rate cuts and balance sheet expansion. The next observation window is the FOMC meeting in December—watch how the dot plot is drawn and listen to Powell's remarks on "reinvestment" and "tapering pace."

Short-term fluctuations may occur, but the medium-term logic is clear: with more water, the boat will naturally float up.

What is your current status? Are you already ambushed, or waiting for a more stable entry point?