Bitcoin has broken through resistance again today, directly smashing through the $86,000 mark in the early trading session. This is not just a simple technical pullback; it involves a potential global capital relocation that could affect a scale of $14 trillion.

The core trigger is in Japan. The market currently predicts that the likelihood of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in December has soared to 76%, and it is approaching 90% in January next year. What does this number mean? For the past decade or so, the yen interest rate has been hovering near zero, with countless institutions and large players borrowing low-interest yen, converting it into dollars, and flooding into U.S. stocks and crypto assets. This strategy is called "carry trade," and its scale has ballooned to astronomical numbers.

Once Japan really tightens its monetary policy, the yen that has been lent out must be quickly recalled to close positions. BTC, as a representative of high-risk assets, will naturally bear the brunt. Looking back at a similar shock earlier this year, Bitcoin evaporated over 20% in a single month, with funds fleeing from ETF channels, and a $400 million long position instantly vanished into thin air. The fragility of the market is far beyond what most people imagine.

The situation is more complicated with the Fed. Powell has recently entered a policy blackout period and has said nothing about future moves. This silence is even more unsettling — if Japan tightens liquidity while the U.S. does not provide relief, won't Bitcoin face a "double whammy"?

Speaking of specific coins, the platform coin of a certain leading exchange has recently plummeted significantly. The new CEO, Lina, has just taken office, but market confidence has not been established in tandem, and on-chain ecosystem projects have been continuously declining, with the once-glorious "Penguin series" projects also falling into a slump. However, it must be said that the platform and management are definitely more anxious than retail investors, and some market rescue actions may have already been secretly prepared.

Looking at it calmly, the impact of closing carry trades is often short-term. After Japan's last interest rate hike in 2024, BTC refreshed its historical high in just three months. The key now is to closely monitor the policy meetings of the central banks of Japan and China in mid-December, as well as the Federal Reserve's dot plot. Don't rush to bottom-fish and go all in; manage your positions well to have a chance to wait for the next real rebound window.

Do you dare to take action at this position?