#数字货币市场回调 Recently, there has been a noteworthy turning point in global monetary policy.

According to market expectations, the probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in December has soared to 81%. The implications behind this number are not simple—it's important to note that Japan has maintained ultra-low interest rates and even negative interest rate policies for many years, and now that the policy is shifting, the impact will not be limited to the yen itself.

Speaking of this, we must mention the yen arbitrage trading ( Carry Trade ). In the past few years, a large amount of capital has been borrowed in yen at extremely low costs (even zero cost), then exchanged for US dollars to invest in US stocks, bonds, and even the cryptocurrency market, earning the dual benefits of interest rate differentials and asset appreciation. This model has been operating very smoothly, but the premise is that Japan maintains a low interest rate environment.

Once the interest rate hike is implemented, the rules of the game change. The rise in borrowing costs means that arbitrage opportunities are compressed, and positions based on cheap yen will face liquidation pressure. Funds will flow back to Japan, the yen will strengthen, and global market liquidity will tighten.

How will this chain reaction be transmitted? The USD/JPY exchange rate may come under pressure, US Treasury yields may rise, and US stocks, especially the technology sector, are likely to be impacted in the short term. The cryptocurrency market is extremely sensitive to changes in liquidity, and fluctuations are likely to be unavoidable in the short term.

However, looking at it over a longer period, there is another side to the story. The normalization of major central banks' monetary policy may instead highlight the unique value of non-sovereign currencies like Bitcoin—as a store of value and an alternative option for hedging against inflation, the long-term logic still holds.

How to respond strategically? In the next 1 to 3 months, lowering expected returns, controlling positions and leverage, and retaining sufficient stablecoins or cash positions are fundamental operations. However, if we shift our perspective to 6 months or even longer, this round of macro tightening resembles a stress test. If the market experiences a panic correction due to policy expectations, it may actually present a buying opportunity for those who are optimistic about cryptocurrency assets in the long term.

Short-term caution, long-term focus on the pullback window—this may be the most pragmatic stance in the coming period.