#数字资产市场观察 The divergence in Fed policy is deepening! Former President's appointed Fed Governor Stephen Moore publicly advocates for a 50 basis point rate cut, while hawkish officials maintain a tough stance—this unprecedented internal conflict is sending shockwaves through the Crypto Assets market.

**Smart money is already at work**

At the critical point of policy divergence, on-chain data shows that a giant whale has opened a 10x leverage short position on $BTC, with a single position size reaching $121 million. Meanwhile, in the past 24 hours, the number of liquidations across the network has exceeded 270,000, with a total liquidation amount of $985 million, and nearly all long positions have been wiped out.

This is not a simple market adjustment. When institutions are positioning themselves in advance and retail investors are still chasing the rise, the information gap has already determined the outcome.

**Policy expectations have become a strangulation machine**

The probability of a rate cut in December has plunged from a high level to below 50%. On one side, certain political forces continue to release dovish signals, suggesting that there may be two rate cuts next year; on the other side, Fed Chairman Powell has publicly stated that "further rate cuts are not a foregone conclusion."

The flip-flopping of this policy is a ticking time bomb for high-leverage positions. What you think is a "rate cut benefit" may just be bait for the next round of harvesting.

**Three survival rules, remember them**

First, reduce leverage immediately. Institutions can withstand a 50% drawdown, but ordinary people cannot. Don't let a single fluctuation wipe out your account.

Second, keep an eye on the December interest rate meeting. If there is indeed a rate cut, a liquidity easing cycle will begin; if there is no change, there will surely be a short-term bloodbath.

Third, consider allocating to anti-inflation assets. Gold performs steadily during easing cycles, while $BTC will still benefit from a shift in monetary policy in the long term—provided you can live to see that day.

When monetary policy begins to be hijacked by politics, and independence shows cracks, the "faith" of retail investors is often the most fragile link. Remember this: the more chaotic the market, the more crucial it is to survive than to make quick money. The bigger the storm, the more you must adhere to your bottom line logic.