#美SEC推动加密创新监管 Understanding the Position is key to understanding the market trends. Last year's surge in the yen was essentially triggered by the massive short positions accumulated above 150 being ignited—everyone was betting on the yen continuing to decline, but the rush to sell caught everyone off guard.

This year is different.

The market's main theme has switched to shorting the US dollar, how about the short positions in yen? They've cut more than half. The CME position data is there, it's not just me talking nonsense. At this position, it simply doesn't have the conditions of last year where it would "explode upon contact".

Why was the impact so severe last year? Because of the word "accident." The monetary policy suddenly took a turn, and the expectation of an economic recession hit again, a double blow that no one could withstand. But this year feels more like "following the script": the fiscal stimulus is off the charts, the long-term bond market can't hold up anymore, and the Bank of Japan intervened to stabilize the exchange rate—this is all within the scope of expectation management.

More importantly, Naoki Tamura made it clear last year: the upper limit of interest rates is likely around 1%. This is equivalent to directly reassuring the market—Japan will not adopt the aggressive rate hike strategy of the United States. Therefore, although there are movements this time, it is far from being at the level of "heart-stopping."

Japan's stance is very clear: gradually climbing back to a normal range from extremely low interest rates, but the long-term positioning remains as a low-interest country. This adjustment is more like a cyclical correction, without any grand narrative, and it's not worth overinterpreting.

In simple terms, the market is digesting the expectation gap. Last year was a black swan, this year is just a gray rhino. $BTC $ETH