#数字资产市场观察 The current situation of the Fed, to put it bluntly, is that it is in a difficult position.

**First, look at the surface article**
Do you remember the plunge in the US stock market last November? At that time, Fed officials collectively changed their tone, and the market went crazy—interest rate cut expectations shot up to 90%. What was the result? The Fed itself hesitated. Why? High interest rates are indeed a heavy burden: those money-burning AI projects need cheap funds to survive, and employment data has also begun to weaken. But if they really cut rates, they worry about money flowing out—after all, once the interest rate spread narrows, you know how capital seeks profit💸.

**There is a cognitive trap that needs to be clarified**
Many people think that interest rate cuts = good news. This logic is correct in textbooks, but it may not hold in a globalized context. Traditional theory assumes that money circulates in a closed system: interest rate cuts → increased lending → money creation. But what is the reality? Funds will engage in cross-border arbitrage. Look at the data: when the U.S. maintains high interest rates, U.S. stocks and housing prices actually rise; here, when we cut interest rates, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks fall. From 2021 to now, the outflow of RMB alone has exceeded 1 trillion 🌊 The key is: can the increase in money supply from interest rate cuts cover the capital outflow caused by the shrinking interest rate differential?

**So what is the Fed calculating?**
The risk of not dropping: What to do if the AI bubble cannot hold and the unemployment rate rises?
Falling again and fearing: capital outflows trigger a chain reaction of liquidations, and liquidity directly gets into trouble.
The current repeated probing of hawkish and dovish positions is actually testing the market's tolerance. Fortunately, there is still the China-US interest rate differential as a buffer - the key is to finely adjust the dollar-denominated bond interest rates and grasp the rhythm ⚖️

**Don't forget that the markets are all connected**
Gold, Bitcoin are hedged with US stocks, oil prices affect the dollar and precious metals, the AI sector also impacts global tech stocks and commodities like non-ferrous metals and electricity. If any link misses the rhythm, the leverage explosion is no joke🔗

**Let's be honest**
In the long run, excessive currency issuance is inevitable, but in the short term, we really need to guard against sudden liquidity withdrawal. Don't panic and follow the crowd when the market is volatile; just distinguish between short-term fluctuations and long-term trends. Do you think the Fed will cut rates as planned in December? Feel free to chat👇