$ETH sleepless night today, going up is the best!

The wave of closing positions in yen carry trades is undoubtedly adding insult to injury for the $BTC market, which is already in a liquidity contraction cycle. On December 1st, Bitcoin nearly retraced its gains from the past ten days within a few hours, ultimately falling 4.52% in a single day. This volatility resonated precisely with the signals released by the Bank of Japan's policy and the global bond market sell-off. This is not an isolated event but rather a concentrated embodiment of the logic of capital withdrawal—when low-cost funds begin to flow back to Japan, the cryptocurrency market is facing a "hemorrhaging impact," especially as liquidity tends to dry up at the end of the year, further amplifying the effects of this capital withdrawal.
What is even more alarming is that this impact is not a short-term one-time event. As long as the expectations for interest rate hikes from the Bank of Japan do not cool down, the process of unwinding carry trades could continue. If the Bank of Japan indeed announces an interest rate hike during the monetary policy meeting on December 18-19, just before Christmas, it will confirm the long-term trend of policy shift, which could trigger a "carry trade massacre" similar to that of December 2022, leading to a larger-scale inflow of yen funds and significantly increasing the selling pressure facing Bitcoin.