Last night the encryption community exploded again—some account dropped a message saying "Fed chief Powell is holding an emergency meeting to resign," which kept many people awake at night. What was the result? Basically, it was another false alarm.

First, the conclusion: this matter is most likely false.

Why do you say that? Go check the Fed's official website; there is no sign of any emergency meeting at all, and Powell is just giving a normal speech tonight. Moreover, think about it, his term is almost over; what would be the point of resigning voluntarily at this time? Experts have directly said the probability is zero. What's even funnier is that there was a farce last July involving an AI-fabricated resignation letter, and this time the script is exactly the same.

However, let's put it this way: why is the market willing to believe such rumors? To put it bluntly, everyone is too eager for interest rate cuts. Many institutions are betting that the Fed will loosen its policy, but internally they are still arguing. So, some people start dreaming: if a more dovish chairman were to come in, would interest rate cuts come faster? This mentality is the "expectation gap" at work.

The real interesting part is here—Trump did indeed say he would announce the next Fed chairperson soon. Currently, the frontrunner is Kevin Hassett, the Director of the White House National Economic Council, with a predicted probability of 74% for him to take the position.

What is Hassett's background? He comes from a traditional economic school and previously worked at the Fed. He has publicly stated his support for interest rate cuts and has a dovish stance. Some say he is a "moderate in Trump's clothing."

What would happen if he really took office? Analysts believe that he probably won't engage in any radical actions. After all, the position of the Fed must walk a tightrope between "satisfying the White House's expectations for interest rate cuts" and "maintaining the central bank's apparent independence." For the market, we may see smoother statements and relatively stable policy continuity, with little likelihood of a sudden shift.

Overall: The rumors of resignation are just noise; what really matters is who Trump is about to nominate as the next leader and how this person will fine-tune policy direction. The market always likes to create its own stories, but it still needs to pay attention to official actions and hard data.

(This article is for market observation only and does not constitute investment advice)