XRP ETF Expected to Deplete Exchange Supply in 17 Months…Analysis of Price Surge Scenarios

Source: DigitalToday Original Title: “XRP ETF, will exhaust exchange volume within 17 months”…price surge variables Original Link:

As the XRP spot exchange-traded fund ( ETF ) quickly absorbs volume in the market, the possibility of a depletion of exchange supply has been raised, while the price increase scenario that investors are anticipating is also emerging.

The four newly listed XRP spot ETFs have recorded an inflow of approximately $666 million in XRP within just 11 trading days. This is a faster rate than the Solana spot ETF, which led the bullish trend earlier this year and saw an inflow of $618 million in 23 days. Experts analyze that if the ETFs continue to reduce supply on exchanges, there is a possibility of a price surge due to a supply shortage.

Analysis of Timing for XRP Exchange Supply Depletion

There is active discussion about when the supply of XRP on exchanges will be exhausted. According to an analysis using AI models, by the end of November 2025, major centralized exchanges will have between 5 billion to 6 billion XRP remaining, with one exchange holding approximately 2.71 billion XRP. The XRP holdings of that exchange have decreased by 300 million XRP since early October, and an additional 100 million XRP has flowed out after the ETF launch.

In particular, exchanges lost about 73 million XRP in a single day, which is a sign that selling pressure is gradually decreasing due to increased buying momentum for ETFs. ETF issuers have reportedly seen an average inflow of $26 million per day from November 25 to 27. Based on a price of $2.20 per XRP, this is equivalent to approximately 11.8 million XRP being bought daily.

At this rate, it is estimated that ETF issuers will take about 422 days to absorb 5 billion XRP and about 506 days to absorb 6 billion XRP, which means that the supply on exchanges could be depleted in about 14 to 17 months.

Price Prediction Due to Supply Shock

Cryptocurrencies tend to rise exponentially rather than linearly in the event of supply shortages. According to an analysis from 2021, Bitcoin brought an increase in market value of $118 for every $1 influx during supply shortages. Applying similar logic, it is analyzed that if an ETF absorbs 5 billion to 6 billion XRP, XRP could rise to between $8 and $13.

In comparison with other major cryptocurrencies, it is projected that if the value of ETH rises to 1 trillion dollars, XRP could increase to a maximum of 20 to 25 dollars, and in the worst liquidity shortage scenario, it could surpass 50 dollars.

17-Month Price Increase Scenario

The scenario for how XRP will rise over the next 17 months is as follows:

• Accumulation Stage (First 6 Months): Increased from $2.20 to $5
• Implementation Stage (7~12 months): Rise to $15
• Storm Stage (Last 5 Months): Soaring due to extreme scarcity, exceeding $20 to $50.

If ETFs significantly erode the supply, the price increase rate of XRP is likely to accelerate sharply in a short period of time. In this case, even holders of 1000 to 5000 XRP, that is, small long-term investors, can benefit from capital gains beyond their expectations.

Potential Earnings for Small Investors

Investors holding 1000 to 5000 XRP number approximately 596,029, and their expected potential returns are significant.

Current Value:

• 1000 XRP: approximately $2,200
• 5000 XRP: approximately $11,000

When XRP reaches 50 dollars:

• 1000 XRP: 50,000 dollars ( profit 47,800 dollars )
• 5000 XRP: $250,000 ( profit $239,000 )

When XRP reaches 20 dollars:

• 1000 XRP: 20,000 dollars ( profit 17,800 dollars )
• 5000 XRP: $100,000 ( profit $89,000 )