#ETH走势分析 The position of the Fed Chair may be changing, and this time the candidate seems a bit different?

In 2026, the current chairman Powell's term will end, and in the latest leaked five-person candidate list from the White House, Kevin Hassett is leading with a 57% probability. How significant is this probability gap? It essentially crushes the chances of the other candidates. If he really takes that position, the entire game rules of the crypto market—interest rate reduction rhythm, regulatory attitude, and capital liquidity—may have to be reshuffled.

**Who exactly is this Hassett?**

The current Director of the White House National Economic Council, in simple terms, is the core advisor managing the overall economic direction around the President. The resume is quite solid: a former economist at the Fed, a Treasury Department advisor, and a professor at Columbia University, representing a typical dual background of academia and practical experience.

What’s more critical is his stance. This person is responsible for leading the White House Digital Assets Working Group, openly opposing a "one-size-fits-all" ban on cryptocurrencies, and has directly stated that blockchain is the underlying architecture of the next generation of the internet. These words from someone who may be at the helm of the Fed carry significant weight.

**Why is the crypto community so eager for him?**

The core reason can be summed up in one word: dovish.

He is a staunch supporter of aggressive interest rate cuts, having publicly criticized the current high interest rate policy multiple times for dragging down economic recovery, advocating for interest rate cuts to be "faster and larger." For crypto assets that heavily rely on liquidity, this is simply a signal to pour water directly into the pool💦 Moreover, he does not adhere to the traditional doctrine of "central bank independence," believing that monetary policy should primarily serve the growth of the real economy rather than strictly adhere to theoretical models. This line of reasoning perfectly aligns with Trump's calls for interest rate cuts.

In terms of regulatory attitude, he clearly belongs to the open faction. He rejects the demonization of encryption technology and advocates for leaving space for innovation to develop. If this attitude can be translated into policy, it means that the barriers for crypto companies to access the dollar clearing system may be significantly reduced, and the compliance channels will become broader.

**What will happen if he really takes office?**

First of all, the liquidity environment may undergo a qualitative change. More aggressive interest rate cuts mean a decrease in the cost of funds, and a large amount of capital seeking high returns will flow back into the risk asset market. Cryptocurrencies, as high-volatility varieties, are often the first beneficiaries. Historically, every time the Fed shifts to a loose monetary cycle, the performance of $BTC and $ETH has been quite remarkable.

Secondly, there is the easing of regulatory measures. The core contradiction in the current U.S. crypto regulation lies in policy ambiguity and excessive enforcement. If the Fed appoints a chair who understands the industry and collaborates with congressional and SEC personnel adjustments, the entire regulatory framework may shift from "blocking" to "facilitating." This would be a true institutional benefit for project parties and trading platforms.

**But don't get too excited too soon**

The Fed is a committee decision-making mechanism, and even the chairman cannot make decisions alone. The extent of interest rate cuts ultimately depends on the voting results of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Traditional economists will not easily accept this.

There is also the hurdle of the Senate hearing. Hassett's dual labels of "crypto-friendly" and "Trump's confidant" will definitely face fierce questioning during the hearing. The opposition will vigorously attack on issues such as inflation risks and financial stability, and whether he can pass smoothly remains uncertain.

A more realistic risk is that if inflation in the United States rebounds, all interest rate cut plans may be forced to pause. At that time, the positive expectations for the cryptocurrency market will also be discounted.

**In the end**

What really influences the market is never an individual, but rather the policy direction and economic cycle. Hassett's chances of rising indeed seem to be increasing, but the trend is more important than the individual. Whether small-cap coins like $MBL can keep up with the overall market rhythm still depends on changes in the overall liquidity environment and risk appetite. It is still too early to talk about "epic positive news," but at least in terms of direction, the wind seems to be blowing towards the crypto circle.