The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond has surged to 4.09%, impacting the global bond market due to changes in Japan's gold rate.

Source: BlockMedia Original Title: [New York Bond] US 10-year Treasury yield surges to 4.09%… Global bond market “trembles” under the influence of Japanese interest rates Original Link: The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond rose to 4.09%, reaching its highest level in nearly two weeks. This is an increase of 7 basis points (0.073%) compared to the previous trading day, with a strong rebound in bond yields on the first trading day of December. The surge in Japanese government bond yields, combined with the increase in U.S. corporate bond issuance, has intensified the selling pressure on U.S. Treasuries.

The direct background for the rise in yield this time is the change in Japan's interest rates. The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has reached its highest level since 2006, highlighting the possibility of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) raising interest rates this month. Consequently, the view that Japanese investors may keep their funds in domestic bonds rather than overseas has emerged, affecting the overall trend of the global bond market.

In addition, the increase in the issuance of corporate bonds by large companies, including a certain pharmaceutical company, has added supply pressure and further pushed up yields. The situation of supply exceeding demand has led to a relatively rapid rise in the yields of medium- to long-term bonds.

In terms of Federal Reserve policy, the market reflects a probability of over 87% for a 25 basis point rate cut at next week's FOMC meeting. However, unlike the expectations for short-term policy rates, the yield curve for medium- to long-term bonds is showing an independent trend.

Policy uncertainty has also become a factor influencing the market. The president stated last Sunday that he has nominated the next chairman of the Federal Reserve, with a senior official on economic policy viewed as a leading candidate. The potential shift in monetary policy direction that the new leadership might bring has raised market vigilance.

In terms of economic data, the manufacturing sector remains weak. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for November has been in contraction for the 9th consecutive month, reaffirming concerns about economic slowdown. This week, several important indicators will be released, including the delayed September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price data and the ISM Services PMI, which are expected to increase market volatility.

The CEO of a global asset management company stated, “In the long run, yields in G7 countries may rise further amidst deteriorating fiscal health and an environment of policy uncertainty.” He added, “The expansion of domestic AI investment in the United States and loose fiscal policy will support growth rates next year, but inflation may continue to exceed central bank targets.”