Is Bitcoin threatened by $70,000... with a possibility of a decline of up to 50%?

Source: DigitalToday Original Title: Bitcoin, Is $70,000 Under Threat? Up to 50% Drop Possible Original Link: https://www.digitaltoday.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=609206

As the selling pressure on Bitcoin intensifies, bearish signals predicting further declines are emerging one after another.

According to reports from blockchain media, the monthly moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator for Bitcoin has switched to bearish, increasing the likelihood of further declines.

In October, Bitcoin's monthly MACD entered the bearish zone for the first time in the current market cycle. Of the five similar patterns since 2014, four resulted in an additional decline of about 50%. Following the MACD signal, Bitcoin experienced a correction of about 35%, and if the current trend continues, analysis suggests it could drop to around $62,200 by January 2026.

Veteran traders also forecast that a medium-term downtrend is opening up through Fibonacci retracement analysis. If specific price support levels are broken, there is a possibility that the decline could extend to the mid-40,000s.

On-chain data also supports the possibility of a decline. Bitcoin's MVRV( market value compared to realized value) extreme deviation band is still above the -0.5σ band, which is similar to the periods when corrections began during past bear markets in 2018, 2019, and 2022. If this pattern repeats, Bitcoin could potentially retreat to $76,250, which aligns with the direction indicated by current technical indicators.

The current market shows that both technical indicators and on-chain signals point to a bearish trend, leading to a gradual weakening of investor sentiment. While a short-term rebound may occur, there are observations that if the key support levels are not recovered, there is a high possibility of a prolonged medium- to long-term correction phase.