When everyone is in despair, has the bottom really come?

Recently, there has been a sentiment circulating in cryptocurrency community tweets: "The market seems to have bottomed out; it’s impossible for everyone to be bearish and for us to actually enter a bear market." This optimistic sentiment based on the "contrarian indicator" perfectly reflects the collective confusion in the current market—fear and hope intertwine, bearishness and bottom-fishing coexist.

But the real bottom is never judged by "feelings." Let's remove the emotional filter and see what the data says.

The phrase "consensus bearish" is indeed a bottom signal, but there is a premise.

Historically, at the end of 2018, in March 2020, and in November 2022, the market experienced moments of extreme panic. At that time, the "Fear and Greed Index" dropped below 10, and social media was filled with the rhetoric of "Bitcoin going to zero." However, extreme sentiment is only a necessary but not sufficient condition; the key also lies in three hard indicators:

1. On-chain cost support: The average cost of long-term holders (LTH) of Bitcoin is currently around $58,000, while the cost for short-term holders (STH) is concentrated in the range of $85,000 to $90,000. This means that if the price falls below $80,000, it will reach a significant institutional accumulation area, creating strong support.

2. ETF Fund Inflows: BlackRock's IBIT saw a return to net inflows on Wednesday after a brief outflow, with cumulative profits returning to $3.2 billion. Institutions entering the market are not doing charity; their cost line represents the market's "invisible bottom."

3. Liquidation Density: The previous $1.9 billion long liquidation has already cleared most of the high-leverage chips. The decrease in market leverage means that the momentum for subsequent sharp declines is weakened.

So, "consistent bearish" can indeed be a bottom signal, but this bottom needs to go through the three stages of "despair-numbness-no one talks about it," rather than just rebounding right after being bearish.

$150,000 Prediction: Bubble or Rationality?

The original text calls out "next 150k" (Bitcoin $150,000), this goal is not a fantasy, but the timeline is crucial.

According to the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, Bitcoin's theoretical value range after the halving in 2024 is between $120,000 and $180,000. However, historically, the real main upward trend usually occurs 12 to 18 months after the halving, which would be in Q2-Q3 of 2025. If it were to surge straight to $150,000 now, it would likely lack macro liquidity support, making it a high probability "false breakout."

A more realistic scenario is: In Q4, it oscillates and consolidates in the range of $80,000 to $95,000, waiting for a substantial interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in 2025 before starting the next major upward wave.

"Losing Money on Criminals": The Trap of Shanzhai Coins

The original sentence "busy losing money on criminals" precisely hits the pain point of retail investors. The recent surge of 1000% in Zcash due to ETF rumors is a typical speculative bubble.

When the direction of mainstream coins is unclear, funds flow into small-cap coins to "take a gamble," which itself is a signal of overheated risk appetite. Historical data shows that altcoin frenzies often occur at the end of a bull market or during a bear market rebound, aiming to attract the last batch of "fear of missing out" retail investors.

The true bottom is characterized by an increase in Bitcoin dominance (BTC Dominance), with funds flowing back from altcoins to BTC for hedging. Currently, this indicator is only at 58%, far from the bottom characteristic (which usually requires over 65%).

The market hasn't dropped to the level of "everyone crying" yet.

The original text mentions "until everyone is crying on the timeline," only then is there room for growth. But look at now:

• There are far more influencers on Twitter calling for "buying the dip" than those calling for "going to zero".

• The deposit volume of USDT on the exchange has not surged, indicating that the funds waiting to "buy the dip" are still in a wait-and-see mode.

• The 25% Delta deviation rate in the options market shows that bearish sentiment is only at a "moderate" level, not reaching "extreme panic".

The real bottom is when even those who try to catch the bottom are too lazy to speak. Clearly, we are not there yet.

Three Survival Rules for Retail Investors

1. Don't be a slave to "contrarian indicators": a unanimous bearish outlook could indicate a bottom, but it could also be a continuation of a downtrend. The key is whether the fundamentals have changed—Federal Reserve policy, inflation data, ETF inflows; these are the decisive factors.

2. Stay away from the "100x coin" trap: If you are not an insider, coins like Zcash that surge 10 times in a single day have nothing to do with you. Its mission is to make you chase high prices in a FOMO frenzy, only to suffer heavy losses during violent pullbacks.

3. Use time to exchange for space: If you believe in the $150,000 target, then dollar-cost average instead of going all in. Investing monthly in the $80,000-$85,000 range has a better chance than trying to guess the bottom.

The bottom of the market is not measured by an emotional thermometer, but is built on three main elements: liquidity, cost support, and leverage clearing.

The current market may be approaching an "emotional bottom," but the "liquidity bottom" still needs to wait for the final decision of the Federal Reserve's December meeting. Before that, any loud calls for "bottom fishing" or "zeroing out" are just noise.

Preserve your principal, wait for signals, and don't become someone else's liquidity during fluctuations. This is the only rule for survival in a bear market.

Risk Warning: Cryptocurrencies are high-risk assets, and this article does not constitute investment advice. The market is highly volatile, please manage your positions well. #比特币 #市场分析 #投资策略 #加密货币 $BTC $ETH