#十二月降息预测

Key economic data: The non-farm payroll report (NFP) and inflation data (CPI/PCE) for December will be crucial in determining the Federal Reserve's actions. If the data shows that the labor market is not as weak as expected or inflation rebounds, the probability of interest rate cuts may quickly decrease, triggering market volatility.

• Official guidance from the Federal Reserve: In addition to whether there will be interest rate cuts, the "dot plot" released after the December meeting will reveal officials' forecasts for interest rates in 2026, which will affect the market's judgment on the long-term easing cycle, and its importance is no less than that of a single rate cut.

• Internal factors in the crypto sphere: The cryptocurrency market has its own logic. For example, the listing of the Dogecoin spot ETF has brought new variables, but its massive trading volume coexists with the selling behavior of "whale" addresses, leading to high leverage positions facing liquidation risks. This reminds investors to pay attention to the structural risks within the crypto sphere.