A strange scene tonight: Fed Chairman Powell is scheduled to appear at Stanford, but due to the quiet period regulations, he is expressly prohibited from discussing any economic or monetary policy topics.

This matter itself is quite abnormal.

Imagine this, a central bank governor gives a public speech but cannot talk about policy? This deliberate silence instead sends unusual signals to the market. Traders have already started to bet wildly—next week’s rate cut probability has been pushed to over 90%. But what is truly nerve-wracking is not this meeting itself, but the upcoming update of the "dot plot."

What will the interest rate path look like in 2026? This chart may provide the answer.

There are three alarming signals in the market now:

First, the silent period itself is an alarm. Historical experience tells us that the more the Fed remains silent, the more aggressive their subsequent actions often are.

Second, expectations are already fully priced in. Everyone is betting on interest rate cuts, but what if the dot plot reveals a more hawkish signal? That scenario could be quite ugly.

Third, multiple variables are occurring simultaneously: balance sheet reduction may stop, silent period fluctuations, dot plot updates—these factors are piling up like a storm brewing.

For risk assets like BTC and ETH, this moment is particularly delicate. Smart money has already started to position itself ahead of volatility, but you need to think clearly: are you going to follow the market's euphoric sentiment, or are you preparing for the possibility of expectations falling short?

When Powell only talks about technical topics and avoids economic issues tonight, the real game has actually begun.

(Risk warning: Market fluctuations may be significantly amplified during sensitive periods of monetary policy. This article is for event analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.)