Earnings Roulette: Why Netflix & IBM Won Big While Tesla & Intel Got Wrecked

This week’s earnings reports are basically a masterclass in market brutality. Netflix crushed it with 13.1M new subscribers (way more than the expected 8-9M), sending stock up 13%+ to hit a 2-year high. IBM also delivered – beat earnings estimates, AI revenue doubled Q3-to-Q4, shares jumped 10%+ to levels last seen in 2013.

But here’s the flip side: Tesla reported weak earnings ($0.71 vs expected $0.74), margins shrinking to 17.6%, and gave zero specific 2024 guidance. Result? Stock tanked 12%. Intel played the same game – beat Q4 numbers but destroyed investors with brutal Q1 guidance (earnings expected to crater 71% and revenue to drop). Down 10%+.

The market’s message is crystal clear: beat or raise, and you’re golden. Miss or soft-pedal guidance? You’re getting punished hard, even if you’re a mega-cap.

Next week things get spicy with Magnificent 7 earnings dropping: Amazon (earnings forecasted to skyrocket 2,567% YoY), Apple, Google, Meta, and Microsoft all reporting. These 5 stocks alone make up ~28% of the S&P 500, so if they stumble, the whole market feels it. Analyst expectations are already sky-high – Meta’s priced in for 180% earnings growth, Amazon 2,567%.

TL;DR: Earnings season is playing out like musical chairs. Get it right, stocks fly. Miss the beat? Welcome to portfolio pain.