Cocoa futures rebounded slightly, with the New York March contract rising by 0.83%. Official data from Ivory Coast shows that cocoa arrivals at ports for this marketing year (October 1 - November 23) reached 618,899 tons, a decrease of 3.7% year-on-year. The supply contraction has driven long positions for margin replenishment, reversing the recent falling trend — cocoa futures had previously hit a 1.75-year low.

However, the bearish factors still dominate: West Africa is expected to have a good harvest (favorable weather in Ivory Coast and Ghana), and major chocolate manufacturer Meiji claims that the number of West African cocoa pods is 7% higher than the 5-year average; global demand is weak (Q3 grinding volume in Asia hits a 9-year low, Europe hits a 10-year low, and chocolate sales in the U.S. decline by over 21%); the EU has postponed the implementation of the "Deforestation Regulation," easing supply concerns; the Trump administration has canceled the 10% tariff on cocoa and other non-U.S. produced goods.

Positive aspects: U.S. port inventories have fallen to 1.33 million bags, the lowest level in 8.25 months; Nigeria (the world's fifth largest producer) is expected to see a decline in production by 11% to 305,000 tons in 2025/26. The International Cocoa Organization predicts a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 tons in 2024/25, marking the first surplus in four years.