#数字货币市场回调 Today the market is in a state of lament. It's not just the encryption circle; even the crypto concept stocks in the US stock market are experiencing a big dump. The two major treasury companies, MSTR and BMNR, are leading the fall, with declines exceeding 10%. Some people ask me: Is it going to crash?

Don't rush to conclusions.

On the surface, it seems that the price of coins has dragged everything down. Bitcoin has just experienced its worst single-month performance since 2021, and market confidence has fallen to rock bottom. But if you look closely, you'll find that the problem is not that simple.

The real pressure comes from three directions:

**The macro level is tightening.** The Bank of Japan has released expectations for interest rate hikes, and global liquidity is becoming tight. Risk assets—whether in the stock market or encryption—are under pressure.

**Leading companies have their own risks.** MSTR faces the risk of being kicked out of the MSCI index, which means that potentially billions of dollars in passive funds may be sold off. Meanwhile, Bitmine's business model is even more fragile: it purchases Ethereum through the issuance of additional stocks. Once the market falls, it is prone to a vicious cycle of "stock price falls → financing difficulties → unable to buy coins → stock price continues to fall."

**The market structure has changed.** After institutional funds dominated the market, the flow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs has become crucial. Once the inflow slows down or even turns into outflow, the decline will be magnified. Coupled with the shadow of the leverage liquidation in October still lingering, the market has not yet regained its vitality.

My judgment is: this recent big dump is a warning signal. The market is in a "preliminary stabilization but far from reversal" fragile stage. Is it time to buy the dip now? The risks are too great.

What should retail investors do? Remember three points:

**Don't rush to catch the bottom.** Entering the market now is like catching flying knives with bare hands; the timing is not yet ripe.

**Don't touch high leverage.** The macro environment is unfriendly, liquidity is tightening, and sentiment is sensitive. Any fluctuations could cause leveraged accounts to be liquidated instantly.

**Don't panic sell.** If you hold Bitcoin or Ethereum spot and your position is reasonable, it is not wise to sell at a low point now. Historical experience tells us: in a bear market, doing nothing is often better than making chaotic moves.

The market will give signals. Be patient and wait.