Gladstone Commercial (GOOD): Analysts See 20% Upside, But Big Funds Are Quietly Bailing

B. Riley Securities just kept its neutral call on Gladstone Commercial, but here’s what’s actually interesting—the numbers don’t quite add up.

The Bullish Case on Paper

Wall Street’s average price target sits at $13.06, implying roughly 21% upside from the current $10.81. Revenue is projected to grow 16.84% annually, and the put/call ratio of 0.60 suggests options traders are positioning bullish. Sound good? Maybe, but watch what happens next.

Here’s the Red Flag

Institutional ownership just hit 361 funds—up 4.64% last quarter. But here’s the plot twist: major funds are trimming positions despite the stock being cheaper.

Renaissance Technologies cut its stake by nearly 8%, slashing portfolio allocation by 21% in three months. Geode Capital ditched 57% of its allocation. Even Vanguard’s Real Estate Index Fund—which holds the largest chunk at 3.52%—reduced its portfolio weight by 4.69%.

This is the classic “institutions know something” signal. When smart money sells into strength (or neutral sentiment), it usually precedes weakness.

The Numbers That Matter

• Analyst consensus: $13.06 target (20.78% upside)
• Institutional trend: Growing ownership count, shrinking allocations
• Options sentiment: Bullish put/call ratio (0.60)
• Projected EPS: Negative (-0.05)

Bottom Line

GOOD looks cheap on paper and sentiment is neutral-to-bullish, but institutional trimming + negative EPS projections suggest upside might be capped. Not a screaming sell, but maybe wait for better entry or confirmation from funds before chasing the 21% target.