# Treasury Yields Hit 4-Week Lows as Rate-Cut Bets Soar

The bond market just gave us a pretty clear signal: rate cuts are coming. Ten-year Treasury yields dropped 3.6 basis points to 4.002% on Tuesday, marking the lowest close since late October, as investors pile into bonds on growing odds of Fed easing.

Here's what spooked the market:

**The data turned weaker than expected:**
- U.S. retail sales came in cooler than forecast in September
- Private sector employers are bleeding jobs faster—ADP showed 13,500 average weekly losses over the past 4 weeks (vs. 2,500 prior)
- Consumer confidence cratered: Index collapsed to 88.7 in November from 95.5 in October, way worse than the predicted 93.3
- Producer prices held steady as expected, but the overall picture screams slowdown

**The Fed door just opened wider:**
CME FedWatch Tool is now pricing in an 82.7% probability of another 0.25% rate cut next month—up from just 50.1% a week ago. That's a massive swing in expectations.

**What's pushing bonds higher:**
It's not just the economic weakness. Recent dovish signals from Fed officials have traders convinced the central bank is ready to pump the brakes on rate hikes. The $70 billion five-year Treasury auction this month also saw above-average demand, showing institutional appetite for fixed income.

**What's next:** Durable goods orders and jobless claims due Wednesday before the Thanksgiving holiday. Traders are watching for any sign the labor market is deteriorating further—which would cement the case for rate cuts.

Bottom line: Bond bulls are in control, and the yield curve is pricing in a softer landing scenario. Watch the jobs data closely.