The US dollar came under pressure today, falling by 0.13%. Bad news has emerged from the US job market—ADP data shows that employers are laying off workers this month, which makes the market more certain that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates in December. However, the rise and fall are limited, as the NAHB housing index unexpectedly strengthened to a 7-month high, coupled with the stock market decline which also boosted demand for the US dollar as a safe haven.

Specific data: Initial jobless claims are 223,000, continuing claims rise to 1.957 million, a new high in 2 months; ADP shows an average weekly layoff of 2,500 workers; the housing index reaches 38, a new high in 7 months. The market now sets the probability of a rate cut in December at 49%.

The euro against the dollar rebounded to +0.09% as weak U.S. employment data favored the euro. The divergence in central bank policies is evident— the European Central Bank has basically completed its interest rate cut cycle, while the Fed is expected to continue cutting rates multiple times until the end of 2026.

The Japanese yen has also strengthened (USD/JPY fell 0.10%), and the Nikkei index plummeted 3%, stimulating safe-haven demand, along with Japanese bond yields rising to a 17-year high. However, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has sent dovish signals, stating that the central bank is gradually reducing its easing measures, which has created initial pressure on the yen. The market is pricing in a December interest rate hike probability of only 28%.

Precious metals are under pressure today: gold fell by $16.60 (-0.41%), and silver fell by $0.481 (-0.95%) to a one-week low. The main reason is the Fed's frequent hawkish comments, with the probability of a rate cut in December dropping from 70% at the beginning of the month to 48%. However, the weak ADP employment data has raised rate cut expectations to 48%, so the decline in precious metals is limited. Central banks continue to buy gold to support prices - China's central bank's gold reserves rose to 74.09 million ounces in October (increasing for 12 consecutive months), and global central banks purchased 220 tons of gold in Q3 (up 28% month-on-month).