The mystery after BTC fell below 90,000: Capitulation indicators peak, but valuation models call for 165,000.

[Coin World] BTC started December by facing a setback, with on-chain data revealing a significant actual loss. One striking phenomenon is that the capitulation indicator has surged to peak levels for the cycle; a glance at historical records shows that such extreme readings often occur on the eve of a bull run reversal.

More critically, there is a serious misalignment in valuation. According to liquidity models, the fair price of BTC should be around $165,000, but it is currently just over $90,000, which is quite absurd. The technical analysis, however, provides a clear script: if this pullback can hold a higher support level, the probability of breaking through the $93,000 resistance level by the end of the year is quite high. In simple terms, the current price may be at the intersection of being undervalued and a technical breakthrough.