Cocoa prices just got hit hard—ICE NY Dec contracts dropped 0.62% while London fell 1.47% after Trump announced slashing tariffs on non-US commodities like cocoa. But plot twist: Brazilian cocoa still faces a 40% national-security tariff.

Here's the supply side: Ivory Coast (world's #1 producer) shipped 516k MT Oct-Nov, down 5.7% YoY. Sounds bullish, right? Nope—farmers are reporting bumper crops thanks to favorable weather. Mondelez data shows West Africa's cocoa pod count is 7% above the 5-year average.

Demand is weak too. Hershey's Halloween chocolate sales flopped (Halloween = 18% of annual US candy sales). Asia's Q3 cocoa grindings collapsed 17% YoY to 9-year lows, and Europe fell 4.8% to 10-year lows.

The silver lining? ICE inventories hit a 7.75-month low at 1.77M bags, and Nigeria's cocoa output projected to drop 11% next year. ICCO expects a 142k MT global surplus for 2024/25—first in four years after a historic 494k MT deficit last season.

Bottom line: Tariff relief + supply glut + demand weakness = price pressure. Watch inventory levels—they're the last support.