# Behind the Cocoa Futures Rebound: The Range-Bound Battle between African Production Cuts and Weak Global Demand

**Market Trends**: New York cocoa futures (March) rose by 0.83% to $5,243/ton today, while London cocoa futures fell by 2.06%. The short-term rebound is mainly due to an unexpected decline in delivery volumes at Ivory Coast ports.

**Supply Highlights**: Ivory Coast (the world's largest cocoa producer) exported a total of 618,899 tons of cocoa beans from October 1 to November 23 this year, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7% (compared to 642,500 tons during the same period last year). This contrast has emerged – although West African weather has been good and pod yields are high (7% above the 5-year average), the actual shipment volume has shrunk.

**Concerns on the Demand Side**: This is where the real problem lies. Cocoa grindings in Asia fell by 17% year-on-year to 183,413 tons in Q3 (the lowest in 9 years), while Europe declined by 4.8% to 337,353 tons (the lowest in 10 years). Chocolate sales in the United States are also dismal—last year's Halloween sales were "disappointing," and North American chocolate sales plummeted by 21% in September this year.

**Supply and Demand Reversal Signal**: The International Cocoa Organization's latest forecast predicts that global production will rise to 4.84 million tons in 2024/25 (up 7.8% year-on-year), expecting a surplus of 1.42 million tons (the first in four years). However, at the same time, inventory is in crisis—U.S. port cocoa stocks have dropped to an 8-month low of over 1.73 million bags. Nigeria (the fifth-largest producer) is expected to see a production decline of 11% to 305,000 tons in 2025/26, further tightening supply.

**Variables**: The EU announced a one-year delay for the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), alleviating previous supply fears; the Trump administration canceled the 10% tariff on non-US grown agricultural products in November. These policy shifts may reshape demand expectations.

**Investment Tips**: Cocoa is currently in a supply-demand mismatch period—production is increasing but sales are declining, inventories are low but demand is weak. In the short term, seek direction from port data and the harvest progress in West Africa.