The market received a wake-up call at the start of December. Bitcoin directly fell below the $90,000 mark, down 5%; Ethereum fared worse, unable to hold $2,900, also down 5%.

What triggered this wave of sell-off? News from Japan suggests a unified tax rate of 20% on crypto assets. As soon as the news broke, market sentiment froze instantly.

**Everyone is watching the Federal Reserve this week**

The main event is Powell. Before the last FOMC meeting of the year, he is going to speak. What the market wants to know most right now is: how does old Powell view the current economy? Will interest rates continue to fall?

From the data, inflation is under control, and the unemployment rate is stable. CME futures contracts show that the probability of a rate cut on December 10 is as high as 87%—basically a done deal.

But the real highlight isn't just whether interest rates will fall or not. Starting from Monday, while Powell speaks, the Federal Reserve will officially halt quantitative tightening (QT).

**Is the policy turning point coming?**

What does the end of QT mean? The liquidity gates may loosen. Over the past two years, tightening policies have suffocated risk assets, with the crypto market being the hardest hit. Now that the policy is shifting, volatility may increase—where the funds will flow is uncertain.

Additionally, there is an important data point on Monday: the November ISM Manufacturing PMI. This report can reveal the true state of the U.S. manufacturing sector and is valuable for assessing economic trends.

In short, every signal this week could be a prelude to a market turning point.