Today BTC directly surged over 6000 points, what's going on?

According to news from the Japan Times, the yield on Japan's two-year government bonds has surpassed 1%, reaching its highest point since 2008. The market is speculating that the Bank of Japan will take action to raise interest rates—currently, the probability of an interest rate hike at the December 19 meeting is 76%, and it could soar to over 90% in January.

Why does Japan's interest rate hike cause a collapse in cryptocurrencies? Simply put, it’s because carry trade has been forcibly unwound. Those institutions that borrowed low-interest yen to speculate on cryptocurrencies now have to quickly pay back the money, resulting in capital flowing back to Japan and further tightening global liquidity. If the Federal Reserve lowers interest rates again this month, combined with Japan's interest rate hike, the interest rate differential will continue to be compressed, and the cryptocurrency market will really face severe consequences. The black swan event on October 11th was essentially caused by liquidity tightening.

What's even more awkward is that today happens to be the day the QT in the United States ends. But here comes the problem - against the backdrop of interest rate hikes in Japan and already tight liquidity in the United States, the end of QT will not inject new liquidity; it just means that there will be no more blood drawn every month. The current situation of liquidity tightening? Don't expect it to ease in the short term.

**Pay close attention to these data in the near future:**
12.1 (Monday) US October PPI, Q3 PCE
12.3 (Wednesday) US November ADP Employment
12.4 (Thursday) Number of people applying for unemployment benefits in the US
12.5 (Friday) US September PCE data

After discussing the macro, let's talk about the bottom points for BTC.

I personally favor two positions: **77400 and 71000**. The area around 77000 is the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level calculated from 48000 to 126000, where I'm betting on a major rebound, and it could even become the bottom for the next three months, which has a pretty high probability. As for whether 71000 can be bought? I think it's a bit questionable. MicroStrategy's cost price is around 74000, and other institutions are piled up there as well, with about 100 billion dollars of chips supporting it. Unless institutions collectively give up and stop playing, it’s hard to break through this level.

I haven't calculated ETH in detail yet, but it seems to be around 2550 at first glance. This position has been mentioned before, and I will update it in detail later.

This week is likely to be very volatile due to the dense data, and spikes will occur frequently. Don't act recklessly until it reaches the ideal position; protecting your principal is the most important.