Monthly #Bitcoin Outlook (01.12.2025)

Key Levels & EMA Structure

On the monthly timeframe, BTC is sitting on one of the most critical support zones of this cycle.

EMA Structure (Monthly)

EMA20 (Green) ~ $82K
Primary trend support of the entire bull cycle.
Every correction in 2020–2021 held above this level.
BTC is now exactly on it.
A monthly close below $82K would be the first major macro warning.

EMA50 (Orange) ~ $65K–$70K
Mid-cycle correction support.
Historically touched only during deep pullbacks (2015, 2019, 2020).
If EMA20 fails, BTC often wicks into EMA50 before recovering.
Next macro demand zone = $70K.

EMA200 (White)
Long-term baseline; only touched in full bear markets.
Not relevant yet but defines the ultimate cycle floor.

Key Levels
Major Support: $82,000 (EMA20 confluence)
Most important level on the entire chart.
A confirmed monthly close below $82K opens downside risk toward $70K.
Major Resistance: $90,000
A monthly close above 90K would signal buyers regained control and unlock a new impulsive leg.

Summary
Above $82K: Bullish macro structure intact
Below $82K: High probability of a $70K test
Above $90K: Macro momentum flips strongly bullish

BTC is currently ranging between EMA20 support and macro resistance at $90K.
The next monthly close will decide the macro trend.