Bitcoin Halving in April: What History Tells Us (And What It Doesn't)

Bitcoin’s fourth halving is coming later this month, and the usual question is popping up again: Will it trigger a price explosion? Let’s look at the receipts.

The Track Record Looks Insane on Paper

Every four years, Bitcoin’s mining rewards get cut in half to control supply and maintain scarcity. After the three previous halvings, here’s what happened:

May 2020 halving: BTC went from $8,601 → $50,941 in 300 days (+493%)

July 2016 halving: BTC went from $658 → $1,551 in 300 days (+136%)

Nov 2012 halving: BTC went from $12 → $135 in 300 days (+987%)

Seems like a no-brainer play, right? Not so fast.

The Real Plot Twist

Here’s what actually mattered:

• 2012: Bitcoin was basically unknown and dirt cheap. A halving event literally put it on the map. Easy moon mission.
• 2016: Initial returns were meh. But Bitcoin’s price was still a fraction of today’s levels.
• 2020: COVID stimulus money flooded the market. Retail was throwing money at everything (meme stocks, crypto, you name it). The whole market was on steroids.

2024 Is Different—And That’s The Problem

Bitcoin is already near all-time highs. The stock market is at record levels. Everyone and their grandmother knows about the halving event happening this month. So here’s the thing: if it’s this obvious, shouldn’t it already be priced in?

The economic backdrop is also completely different. No COVID relief programs. No free money flowing. Consumer budgets are tighter. Conditions are decidedly not ideal.

The Uncomfortable Truth

Just because something happened three times before doesn’t mean it’ll happen again. Context matters. Bitcoin could still rally post-halving, but expecting it to double just because it did in 2020 is wishful thinking at best, dangerous at worst.

If you’re thinking about buying before April 20 just because “history says so”—pump the brakes. This asset remains incredibly volatile. Only invest what you can afford to lose.