The global financial market is witnessing a magical scene: the Fed and the Bank of Japan are simultaneously taking action, one is stepping on the gas to engage in point shaving, while the other is preparing to tighten the reins, making the market feel like it is on a directionless roller coaster.

Wall Street traders have begun betting on a rate cut in December, with the probability soaring to over 85%. The dollar index promptly fell below the 100 mark, being ground down. Meanwhile, the words of Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, "will make appropriate judgments," instantly ignited market nerves—gambling on a rate hike in Japan for December has pushed the probability directly into the 64-76% range. Global funds are frantically shifting between the two major central banks, creating quite a chaotic scene.

**Is the Fed really going to loosen up?**

The expectation of interest rate cuts has surged, mainly because some Fed officials are starting to worry that the job market is cooling too quickly. However, opinions within the institution are severely divided: doves are eager to call for rate cuts to save the economy, while hawks are fixated on inflation, fearing that if they loosen their grip, prices will rebound again. This wave of euphoria is not unanimous, and caution is advised against a sudden turnaround from the hawks.

**Is the Bank of Japan going to take real action?**

Ueda Kazuo's signal this time is quite clear - he is weighing the pros and cons of raising interest rates. If Japan truly raises interest rates, it means that the world's cheapest yen funds may flow back to the homeland on a large scale. Those who rely on borrowing yen to speculate on global assets may face a severe impact.

**How will the crypto world be?**

To put it bluntly, global liquidity is about to change. The Fed's point shaving should have been good for risk assets like BTC and ETH, but as soon as Japan tightens, the market could shudder instantly. A glance at history shows that each time the yen experiences unexpected fluctuations, the crypto market cannot escape the fate of following suit.

Don't just follow the crowd in celebration. The "water" of liquidity is indeed flowing, but the risk of "interest rate shock" is equally real. In the face of this situation, will you choose to go with the flow or take precautions against risks in advance? Feel free to share your thoughts on your strategy in the comments.