I recently came across Uncle Munger's decision-making framework and found it surprisingly effective for analyzing crypto world projects. Let me break down his "multidisciplinary filter."

**First, let's talk about the core logic: Don't view problems from just one perspective**

Many people go all in on a certain coin just because of "high community enthusiasm" or "the founder's impressive background," but Munger forces himself to cross-verify from multiple dimensions:
- Mathematical Probability: How long can this token economic model last? Is the annualized return real or a Ponzi scheme?
- Evolutionary perspective: Can the technological direction adapt to regulatory and market changes in the next three years? (For example, the compliance pressure on privacy coins)
- Psychological trap self-check: Am I being pushed to buy by FOMO emotions, or do I really understand?

Take a counterexample: back then, a certain blockchain game was extremely popular, but when calculated by probability — 80% of daily active users were from the "wool party" and the amount of token unlocks was 50 times the circulation. This profit model is fundamentally unsustainable, and as expected, it collapsed later.

Munger has a tough tactic called **"reverse engineering"**: to know whether a project will fail, first think about "how to make it fail the fastest"—for example, the team running away anonymously, technical vulnerabilities, or strict regulation. List these risks and then see if the project has countermeasures.

**Practical Habit: Don't Stop Updating Your Knowledge**

The old man reads for half an hour every day at 99 years old. We don't have to work that hard, but at least we should:
- Spend some time each week to look at on-chain data analysis and macro policy trends.
- Regularly review your trades: Was this loss due to not calculating the gas fees correctly? Or did you get scared out of the market by short-term fluctuations?
- When encountering a new project, first ask yourself: Is this a technical issue (like insufficient TPS) or a narrative issue (just riding the hype)? Don't waste your energy on the internal strife of the latter.

**Three Preferences for Screening Targets**

1. **Prioritize "old projects"**: Chains that have survived two cycles of bull and bear markets tend to have a higher probability of reliable technology and teams. New projects can be monitored, but the position should not exceed 10% of total assets.
2. **Check team holdings**: If the founders and core developers have locked up a large portion of their holdings, it is highly likely that they have confidence in the project. Conversely, if the token is dumped for cash as soon as it is launched, it’s time to run.
3. **Diversify but don't diversify blindly**: Put the majority in foundational assets like BTC and ETH, while small positions can be taken in new sectors (like AI Agent, RWA), but don't go all in on some altcoin dreaming of getting rich overnight.

In the end, investing is about finding certainty amidst uncertainty. Munger's multi-dimensional thinking fundamentally forces oneself not to be lazy—if something can be seen clearly from three angles, one should never just gloss over it with only one angle.