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Bloomberg strategist: Bitcoin may retrace to $50,000, gold ratio suggests 50% overvaluation potential

GasFeeLady

2025-12-01 12:04:25

Abstract generation in progress

[Block Rhythm] Bloomberg's senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone recently issued a warning: Bitcoin may pull back to the $50,000 level. What is the basis for his judgment?

The core logic lies in the price ratio between Bitcoin and gold. Bloomberg's economic model shows that this ratio is currently hovering around 20 times, but the fair value should be close to 13 times—meaning that Bitcoin is currently possibly overvalued by more than 50% relative to gold. A more critical signal comes from the 120-day volatility of the S&P 500 Index, which is nearing the lowest year-end level since 2017.

What does a decrease in market volatility usually indicate? McGlone believes this is a dangerous complacency. When investors are overly optimistic, risk assets often face a correction. In this potential adjustment, Bitcoin, as a high Beta asset, is likely to be the first to be affected. Backtracking from a target ratio of 13 times, $50,000 may not be an exaggeration.

BTC-4.58%

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BearEatsAll

· 7h ago

50% overestimated? Ha, this data is here again... Every time it says overestimated, why hasn't it fallen? I've heard McGlone's trap logic too many times, low volatility = complacency? Then why didn't he come out to warn when the volatility was low last year? 13 times vs 20 times, it feels like another model game, what really determines the coin price is still the market maker and sentiment. At this price point of 50,000... Hey, isn't this just giving the short positions a dream journey?

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SchroedingerMiner

· 11h ago

50,000? Laughing to death, here comes the 2017 script again --- The golden ratio theory really impresses me, it can always calculate a 50% overestimation space --- Low volatility means it has to fall? Then ask people from before 2020 what they say --- McGlone is always so bearish, how come he hasn't gone bankrupt yet --- Between 13 times and 20 times... to put it bluntly, it's just betting on probabilities, no one can calculate accurately --- Complacency? I see it as paving the way for a big dump in public opinion --- It’s time for the "authoritative figures to be bearish" segment, after accumulating so many bullets, it’s time to release them --- Hearing about 50% overestimation too often, anyway, I'm still here --- Low volatility ≠ it must dump, can this logic be any more forced? --- Bloomberg's economic model, heh, it's just that kind of thing

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GasWastingMaximalist

· 11h ago

50% overvaluation space? Haha, McGlone is a bit conservative this time, didn't he just see 12k a couple of days ago? --- Gold ratio 13 times... I always feel like this data is hindsight analysis. --- Here it comes again, every time before a pullback, there are people singing the blues, it's the same old story. --- Low volatility = complacency? Then what about stablecoins? If it's too stable, will it explode? --- The matter of 50k needs to look at the Fed's face, otherwise, it's all talk. --- If Bloomberg's model could predict, they wouldn't need to publish articles, they'd be rich by now. --- The key is liquidity, can 50% overvaluation be smashed out, everyone?

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LiquidityNinja

· 11h ago

50% overvalued? How did you come up with this data... Volatility hitting a low and we still have to buy the dip? I've heard this logic a hundred times since last year.

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Ser_APY_2000

· 11h ago

50,000? Dream on, with such low volatility it should have rebounded by now.

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NftMetaversePainter

· 11h ago

actually the algo here is what gets me... 20x vs 13x, sure, but have you considered the deeper computational dynamics? this ratio obsession misses the *aesthetic asymmetry* of btc's immutable ledger compared to gold's archaic scarcity model. McGlone's framework is trapped in traditional valuation paradigms tbh

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StakeHouseDirector

· 11h ago

Oh no, here comes the short positions rhetoric again, I've heard this trap so many times. 50% overestimation space? I think McGlone just wants to feel relevant, just because the Volatility is low doesn't mean it's going to crash? That's funny.

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GovernancePretender

· 11h ago

50% overvaluation space? Is this data reliable? It feels like Bloomberg is trying to scare people this time.

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