#数字货币市场回调 Today, this bearish belt hold has poured a bucket of cold water on market sentiment. Looking back, the breakthrough at the 3000 position itself is just not convincing.

The BOLL upper band is forming significant resistance around 3114, with MA7 and MA30 already showing signs of a death cross. The MACD green bars started to expand three days ago. These signals combined have actually been indicating risk.

A few points to note: if the key resistance level does not hold with increased volume for three consecutive trading days, do not easily judge a trend reversal. Indicators should be viewed in combination; if two out of MACD, moving averages, and Bollinger Bands are showing weakness, it is time to consider controlling your position. As for various favorable news from the market, many times they are just emotional catalysts, while the technical aspect often reflects the real trend earlier.

What to look for next? In the short term, pay attention to the support strength at the 2700 level (corresponding to the lower Bollinger Band), but it's still too early to talk about bottom fishing. Currently, the MACD's DIF has dropped to the -50 area, and the DEA is around -30. We need to wait for the green bars to clearly shrink and for the price to regain the 2850 level (MA7) before it's suitable to test with a small position.

In the medium term, before truly stabilizing at the 3000 level, it is very likely to oscillate repeatedly in the range of 2700-2950 for at least a week. Frequent operations in this kind of market can easily lead to losses on both sides, so it is better to wait for clear turning point signals from the indicators before taking action.

My habit is to follow technical signals and not to guess tops and bottoms. I previously warned about the risk of reducing positions near 3050, and also suggested lowering holdings during the 2900 wave. Friends who followed the operations basically avoided this round of correction. If a stabilization signal appears near 2750 in the future, I will share the judgment logic at the first opportunity.