#数字资产市场观察 Many people ask me how to determine the highs and lows of the market? To be honest, it's basically impossible to accurately catch the tops and bottoms, but we can find the "high probability range" through several dimensions.

First, let's talk about the emotional aspect. Just look at the community - when everyone is sharing profit screenshots and even relatives who usually don't invest in cryptocurrencies are asking how to buy, it's basically a sign of a phase peak. Conversely, when the screen is filled with "never playing again" and "huge losses, I'm quitting", and there's a concentrated outbreak of long position liquidations, this extreme panic often indicates that the bottom is not far away.😱

I only look at three technical indicators: RSI above 70 is considered an overbought zone ( that may indicate a top ), while a drop below 30 is an oversold zone ( that may indicate a bottom ); a breakout of the upper Bollinger Band or a breach of the lower band are both extreme signals; and then there's volume, where extremely high volume often accompanies selling pressure at a top, and extremely low volume indicates that selling is nearly exhausted 📊.

Don't forget to look at historical price anchor points. If previous highs are repeatedly tested but not broken, it is likely that we are nearing a short-term peak; if there is a noticeable stop in decline near previous lows, support is there. Additionally, if the price deviates too far from the 60-day or 120-day moving average, whether upwards or downwards, it is prone to correction.

Finally, let's talk about the capital flow 💸: A large number of coins are being transferred from exchanges to cold wallets? This could indicate that the main players are accumulating at low prices. On the contrary, if a huge amount of capital suddenly flows into the exchanges, be careful as someone might be looking to dump their assets.

Remember one thing: there is no 100% method of judgment. In practice, never go all in chasing highs or bottom fishing. Controlling your position + setting a stop loss, and building your position in batches is the way to go for the long term. ✨