#数字货币市场回调 Michael Saylor is stirring things up on social media again, and the probability in the prediction market has skyrocketed to 98%. That legendary trader with six consecutive wins is also joining the fun. But to say something unpleasant — the market has never lacked myths, but it lacks those who can survive until the end.

Let's break this down. A prediction probability as high as 98%? The more outrageous the number, the more cautious we should be. The market loves to slap consensus in the face; remember when a bunch of people were still shouting 'as stable as a mountain' right before LUNA collapsed? And that trader who claims to have won every battle, hitting all 6 trades correctly is indeed impressive, but the crypto space is full of 'invincible generals' who end up getting slapped in the face. A great historical record doesn't guarantee future wins, especially when everyone starts to worship; that's often when risks accumulate.

Is MSTR really going to announce an increase in holdings? There will definitely be short-term speculation, and Bitcoin might bounce a bit. But don’t treat the actions of some big shot as a decree; what can determine the big trends are interest rate movements and real capital inflows, not the hint games in tweets. The market is extremely fragile right now, and a single bearish piece of news can wipe out the gains.

The most unbearable thing is to see news and follow it mindlessly. If you lose money after going all in, don’t blame the market or the manipulators. Adults must take responsibility for their choices. If you really want to get involved, remember a few iron rules: control your position, don’t go crazy, set stop-losses and don’t be soft-hearted, and any claim of "guaranteed profit" is nonsense.

The market does not lie; it is human nature that lies. What we want to earn is the money from understanding, not from luck. Stay alert; opportunities are always reserved for those who are prepared. $ETH