The US financial circle exploded today. Trump suddenly dropped a bombshell - the candidate for the new Fed chairman has been decided, just waiting for the official announcement; meanwhile, rumors are flying that "Powell is resigning urgently tonight." Both pieces of news hit the market like nuclear bombs, causing crypto assets to collapse first, with mainstream tokens generally plummeting by 5%.

The essence of this drama is, to put it simply, a power game. As Trump's second term just got underway, he hit the gas to push for interest rate cuts, but Powell firmly maintained the bottom line of "controlling inflation" without budging, leading to several rounds of back-and-forth between the two. Now Trump is playing even harder—before his term is even over, he is directly looking for a successor, clearly indicating he wants to find a "buddy" to turn the Fed into a policy tool.

Kalshi platform data exploded: Hassett's nomination probability soared to 72%, completely on a different level from other candidates. Why him? The answer is ridiculously simple - this guy understands exactly what Trump wants. As a former economic advisor, Hassett publicly stated "to bring lower loan rates", how straightforward is that? Meanwhile, other candidates are still emphasizing "data-driven" and "independence", isn't that obviously out of sync? What's even more remarkable is his statement "respect independence but keep up with the situation", which is perfectly phrased, giving enough face while also implying cooperation; this kind of political wisdom is indeed high.

Why is Powell holding on and not leaving? Legally, he is very stable, with his term as chairman lasting until May 2026, and his position as a board member lasting until 2028. Does Trump want to force him out? There's no precedent for that, and if he really does that, market confidence will collapse instantly. Moreover, he has achievements in hand—bringing down inflation from high levels, which has garnered support from many institutions. But the cost is also evident: being publicly attacked by Trump every day, and now even the successors are being lined up in advance, making the implementation of policies during the remaining term increasingly difficult.

Investors are the most panicked now. Hassett leads the way in directly raising interest rate cut expectations, and the tech sector of the US stock market has responded with a rise, while gold begins to fluctuate violently, yet the crypto market has first taken a dive as a salute. Even more frightening is the uncertainty of policies—what if the Fed really becomes a vassal of the White House, with interest rate policies swinging randomly? What if inflation resurges? Once the market's trust in the central bank collapses, who will be able to cushion the subsequent chain reactions? This time, even a "little essay" can cause unusual movements in the dollar index; will someone specifically create news for arbitrage in the future? No one has answers to these questions right now.