In the crypto market of December #数字资产市场观察 , every data window could become a turning point.

🔴 The significance of the signal indicating the end of QT

On December 1, the U.S. quantitative tightening officially came to an end. This is not just a technical adjustment—markets are shifting from tightening bets to a phase of liquidity expectation reconstruction. What does this mean for risk assets? The door to implicit easing has already been slightly opened.

🟡 The Federal Reserve enters a silent mode

Once the quiet period begins, officials fall silent collectively. Only three key statements and core data releases remain this week; this is the last window for the market to price in the probability of a rate cut in December. Waiting for the quiet period to end? Rate cut expectations will be basically locked in, and the volatility space will significantly narrow.

🟢 Powell's words are more important than the data.

On the morning of December 2nd at 9 AM, Powell will speak. QT has stopped, and the market urgently needs him to clarify his stance—will he continue with a preemptive interest rate cut strategy, or will he remain vigilant against rising inflation? If he intentionally adopts a hawkish tone to counter positive expectations, assets like Bitcoin may face short-term pressure.

🔵 The most hawkish Bowman speaks, and the interest rate cut expectations take off directly.

At 11 p.m. on December 2, Bowman testified. Her stance shifted, equivalent to the joint statement of five dovish officials. If this hawkish core figure acknowledges that employment and inflation pressures are alleviating, it means the hawkish camp has been pierced by real data, and the expectation of interest rate cuts will directly ignite.

🟣 The small non-farm payroll replaces the big non-farm payroll, and data distortion is also favorable.

On December 3rd, the small non-farm payroll report will be released. In the absence of the large non-farm payroll data, this report has become the key basis for assessing the employment situation. Weaker than expected? The probability of interest rate cuts increases; stronger than expected? It is likely to be interpreted by the market as "statistical deviation," making it difficult to reverse the expectations of easing.

🟤 The lagging PCE can also stir the situation.

On December 5th, although the PCE data is two months lagging, the trend signals cannot be ignored. Weak data will further strengthen the confidence in rate cuts; however, if it shows that inflation rose in September? Even if it is old data, hawks will use it to hype "fiscal stimulus or a restart of the inflation cycle", interfering with market judgment on rate cuts in December.

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